Leaving L.A., Leaving California

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Good morning. There has been lots of reader discussion on this blog about population trends in California and Los Angeles, and what those trends mean for future housing demand, and what that demand means for future housing prices.

Into that mix of speculation, prediction and extrapolation, throw this, from this morning’s LATimes: In the last fiscal year, ‘... 89,000 more people moved out of California than moved here from elsewhere in the United States.’

More: ‘Since 2000, about 500,000 more people have left Los Angeles County than have moved here from other parts of the U.S. ...

Now, let me clarify a bit: despite this ‘out-migration,’ the populations of California, and L.A. County, are both growing. They are growing because of immigration and new births (Yes, the birth rate is generally higher among immigrants, so recent immigration contributes to the birth rate). In California last year, 89,000 people moved out of the state, but 200,000 new state residents either immigrated here or were born here, so the population moved higher. [Correction: In California last year, although the state was losing 89,000 residents to other states, it was gaining far more through either immigration or births, so the population increased by about 438,000 residents.]

The Times quotes a state official who says the state’s weakening economy is partly to blame. ‘People who are leaving the state ... are probably doing so because they believe they’ll do better elsewhere.’

They may also be tired of the state’s relatively high cost of housing, relatively long commutes, and increasingly troubled public education system. That’s just my two cents. Now I’d like to hear yours: why are people moving out of L.A. and California?

While we’re at it, here’s two more cents: I find the exercise of predicting future housing demand, and prices, futile. There are too many unknowns: at what rate will new households form? Will immigration continue at current rates? Will California’s economy tilt toward lower-wage jobs performed by new immigrants, or toward higher-paying jobs that support higher housing prices? What will happen to interest rates? To the availability and terms of mortgages? Too many variables.

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Photo Credit: LATimes