Why?

Sacramento’s fiscal wizards still are trying to figure out why the state may have an estimated $2-billion revenue shortfall. The Deukmejian Administration blames the shortfall on state tax conformity legislation. There still are signs, however, that the Administration erred in estimating the effect of both the federal law and the stock-market crash on the capital-gains tax.

New York state now has a $900-million shortfall, and continues to blame the capital-gains situation. Taxable capital gains in New York went from $16 billion in 1985 to $32 billion in 1986 in anticipation of higher federal tax rates in 1987. New York projected a falloff to $22 billion last year, but the actual drop may be back down to $16 billion.

The California Finance Department, however, projected capital-gains profits to continue on a strong upward line from 1985 through 1987. Why? One also wonders why New York seems to know a lot more about what caused its shortfall than California does its.