Netanyahu Supporters Dwindling

TEL AVIV — If Benjamin Netanyahu survives his latest political crisis, his opponents can blame Roni Milo, the mayor of Tel Aviv. Last week, Milo prematurely unveiled a secret plan to oust the Israeli prime minister while Netanyahu was in Los Angeles honoring movie star Kirk Douglas for the actor’s major financial contribution to the Orthodox Aish HaTorah yeshiva. In the past, Milo was fond of bashing the Israeli left. But since his election, in 1994, to the mayorship of the country’s most liberal and open-minded city, Milo has modified his “hawkish” views to position himself at the center of Israel’s political spectrum.

Milo is one of a growing number of politicians, members of the Knesset and former and current Cabinet ministers who have become disenchanted with Netanyahu’s personality, style of governing and policies. They teamed up last week in an effort to get rid of Netanyahu as prime minister and as leader of the Likud. The most surprising fact about the group, known in Israel’s political parlance as “the rebels,” is that none of them belongs to the Labor Party or to any other opposition group. On the contrary. All are part and parcel of Netanyahu’s party, members of his parliamentary coalition and loyal to the Likud ideology.

The “rebels” are supported by at least half of the Likud’s parliamentary faction. An effort by Netanyahu’s supporters to repel their attack, which they labeled a “political ambush” and a “stab in the back,” was aborted. Only four members of the Knesset agreed last week to sign a petition supporting the prime minister. Also discontented and dissatisfied with Netanyahu’s leadership are Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai, Foreign Minister David Levy and Minister for National Infrastructures Ariel Sharon.

What led to this situation, which has no precedent in Israeli history?

Since his surprising victory 17 months ago, Netanyahu has led Israel from crisis to calamity, both at home and abroad. His policies have stalled peace talks with the Palestinians, increased the danger of war with Syria and harmed relations with moderate Arab countries such as Egypt, Jordan and Morocco. Multinational corporations that had rushed to invest in Israel when Yitzhak Rabin was prime minister are having second thoughts. The European Union is considering a boycott of Israeli produce grown in Jewish settlements on the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip. President Bill Clinton snubbed the Israeli prime minister during Netanyahu’s visit to Los Angeles last week.

But what really troubles “the rebels” are the domestic ramifications of Netanyahu’s “unconfined appetite for absolute power” in the party, to use former Science Minister Zeev Begin’s words. Two weeks ago, Netanyahu, assisted by his Director-General Avigdor Liberman, widely regarded as the prime minister’s hatchet man and probably the most hated politician in Israel, convened a party convention, Likud’s top body, and stormed it with seemingly insignificant resolutions. Had the resolutions passed, Netanyahu would have become the sole power in his party with an unprecedented authority to select not only his Cabinet ministers, but also to nominate Likud parliamentary candidates.

The rebels, for the most part, blocked the Netanyahu-Liberman move, then activated their secret plan to bring down the prime minister. But when Milo prematurely revealed the plot, he and his cohorts were exposed to Netanyahu’s political revenge. In the end, Netanyahu agreed only to set up a committee to investigate “irregularities” at the convention.

The more fundamental reason for the failure of the rebels’ plan are the splits among them. In the last decade, Israel has become a deeply divided society, and the tears in its fabric are growing ever larger. The divisions are not only manifested in the war of rhetoric between the political left and right, between the parties and between secular and religious Israelis. They exist within each camp as well.

This month, Israel commemorated the second anniversary of Rabin’s assassination. A poll taken to coincide with the commemoration shows that nearly 60% of Israelis believe that another political murder is possible. It also reveals that 35% of the country’s religious youth support and justify the actions of Yigal Amir, Rabin’s assassin who was sentenced to life in prison.

The backdrop for such opinions is an Israel undergoing dramatic change. The pioneer spirit of idealism that marked its inception has been supplanted by an American-style materialism and consumerism. Once regarded as one of the most unified and equitable societies in the world, Israel today is polarized--culturally, politically and economically. A recent report by the state-run National Insurance disclosed that more than 1 million people, nearly 22% of the population, live under the official poverty line, while 75% of the country’s national wealth is concentrated in the hands of less than 1% of the population. The report also found that up to 300,000 children are undernourished.

Another alarming development is the decline of Israelis’ involvement and interest in politics. A survey prepared by the Defense Ministry underscores Israelis’ weakening commitment to their country. Unlike two decades ago, when nearly 70% of adult Israelis gladly fulfilled their national duty and served as reservists in the Israeli army, today a majority of the reservists dodge active service.

No wonder there is little in common ideologically between the hawkish and extreme views of Begin, Ehud Olmert, the mayor of Jerusalem, and Limor Livnat, the communications minister and the only woman in Netanyahu’s Cabinet, and the relatively moderate opinions of Milo and former Finance Minister Dan Meridor. Begin, for example, is absolutely opposed to peace talks with Yasser Arafat’s Palestinian Authority, while the others tolerate it. Milo, meanwhile, is emerging as a champion of Israel’s secular agenda. He bashes the three Orthodox parties, tries to thwart their influence and calls for the inclusion of Reform and Conservative Jews in running religious affairs. Olmert, on the other hand, heavily depends on the support of Orthodox parties and, as such, will never challenge their monopoly on religious matters and their desire for more state money and subsidies.

Leaders of the religious bloc, which has nearly 20% of the Knesset seats, including Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, the spiritual leader of the Shas party, are also unhappy with Netanyahu. They claim he double-crossed them when religious legislation came up, backed off his promises to help them enhance their agenda for the establishment of a theocracy and, thus, would not shed tears if the prime minister were replaced. But they made it absolutely clear they would never support Milo as his successor.

The rebels also are hard put to reach unity on the two most important administrative and personnel issues: Who will succeed Netanyahu and when? Olmert, Milo and, to a certain degree, Meridor consider themselves suitable candidates. If they cannot agree on who will run, it is likely that Mordechai will emerge as the leader of compromise. But aside from his ambiguous and noncommittal approach in politics, Mordechai did not exactly conceal his opinion that the rebels’ timing hurt him. As a former army general and a newcomer to politics, he wants to consolidate his own power base before launching an attack on Netanyahu.

While Milo wants to form a new centrist party, Olmert, Begin and Livnat dream of a putsch from within. “I am a loyal member of the Likud,” both Livnat and Olmert declared after the plot to topple Netanyahu was revealed. That may well be true, but practical politics may lie closer to the truth. Since 80 votes in the Knesset are needed to topple the prime minister, any undertaking with such a goal would require an “unholy” alliance among the Likud rebels, the other coalition parties, the Labor Party and the latter’s left-of-center and Arab allies. Bringing all these conflicting factions together in a timely fashion is almost impossible.

Above all, most of the rebels and their supporters share the anxiety that if Netanyahu is forced to resign and early elections (now scheduled for November 2000) are called, the way would be paved for Ehud Barak’s--and Labor’s--victory. According to the most recent poll, Netanyahu’s rating is at its lowest point, and Barak leads him by 30% in a mock race. All, except Milo, see a return of Labor to power and the reinstatement of the peace process as a greater evil than keeping Netanyahu the head of government. So, Netanyahu, at least for the moment, seems able to weather his latest political crisis.*