Growth Keyed to Economy, Birth Rate, Immigration

When Kate and Tim Somerset moved to Hawaii about eight years ago, they were part of the great exodus of Californians pursuing a better life outside the Golden State.

A year and a half ago the Somersets--plus two children-- returned, settling in Orange County and feeding another statistical surge: the fourth-largest population gain in the nation.

“We thought, ‘This is going to be a good place,’ ” said Kate Somerset, whose family was attracted to Laguna Beach partly because it was most like Honolulu in ambience.

The Somersets were among nearly 55,000 residents new to Orange County between July 1, 1996, and July 1, 1997. While county planners had predicted modest growth, the 2% population spurt surpassed expectations. Officials attribute the higher influx to a resurgent economy, a high birth rate and immigration.

Laguna Beach beckoned the Somersets for a number of reasons. Tim, a builder, and Kate, who works in marketing, had moved to Honolulu when Southern California’s construction industry was hit hard by the recession. But after a few years, Hawaii’s economy took a similar downturn.

The Somersets, formerly residents of Manhattan Beach, wanted to return to California, but did not want to go back to Los Angeles. Laguna Beach, Kate Somerset said, offered the ocean, reasonably affordable housing and a better school system than in Los Angeles. In addition, relatives recently had moved to Orange County, she said.

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“When you put everything together, it seemed like the best place,” she said.

Orange County’s population, 2.674 million in 1997, has grown nearly 11% since 1990, according to federal census figures. In that time, there have been 364,550 births and 109,310 deaths. Immigration accounted for a net increase of 184,603 residents, but “domestic migration” saw 184,603 people move away, according to the census bureau.

Roberta Thompson, superintendent of the Anaheim City School District, certainly has seen the effects of the population boom.

“I think they’re all coming to Anaheim,’ she said, laughing.

Thompson’s district has 22 elementary schools with 22,200 children, increasing by 750 to 1,000 every year.

“Most of our schools were built for 650 students,” Thompson said. “We now have 10 schools in the district that have more than 1,000 students.”

The skyrocketing numbers have forced the district to operate year round, which creates an entirely new challenge for the city, Thompson said.

“On any given day, there are 5,000 kids who are out in the streets because they’re on vacation from school,” she said.

County planner Paul Lanning, who handles demographic policy issues, said that the new population figures are slightly ahead of projections of 1% to 1.3% growth.

“There’s no doubt that Orange County is going to continue to grow. That’s in all the projections,” Lanning said. “It’s just happening a little faster” than expected.

Yet the larger number of new residents, spread out over the entire county, “isn’t going to overwhelm us,” he said.

Bill Gayk, director of Cal State Fullerton’s Center for Demographic Research, said the census data reflect the county’s resurgent economy and recovery from the severe recession of the early 1990s.

The recession caused population growth in Orange County to slow considerably as businesses moved out of the state and residents moved to more affordable housing in the Inland Empire, said Gayk, whose center does demographic projects for local government agencies.

“What we are seeing is another sign that the trend has reversed itself,” he said. “This kind of growth is significant. It’s [the equivalent of] a small city.”

People are moving into the county because of the congestion between Riverside and Orange County and perhaps between San Diego and south Orange County, he said.

“I think there are not many families who want to make that kind of commute.”

A spokesman for the Orange County Transportation Authority, John Standiford, said the population surge “certainly has contributed to the record ridership growth we’ve had on our buses. A significant portion of the new people apparently are riding buses.”

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In response, the agency recently added more buses and drivers to a number of its busiest routes, he said.

While the population growth in general “doesn’t come as that big of a surprise,” Standiford said, the continuation of growth at unanticipated levels “might affect our long-term plans,” including the widening of the Santa Ana Freeway and talk of a light rail system from Fullerton to Irvine.

Standiford said OCTA is watching the situation to determine “whether this will be a trend that will continue or just a one-year thing.”

Population growth is a controversial subject in south Orange County, where many new developments are planned. One, to be called Ladera, was approved by county supervisors in 1995 and will provide 8,000 new homes. Other existing communities continue to expand.

Already, children sometimes have to join waiting lists for organized sports because south Orange County has insufficient youth sports facilities. Residents also complain that open space is disappearing, and there are too few facilities such as libraries and meeting rooms.

“South Orange County citizens are paying the price for the lack of growth management control,” said Melody Carruth, former mayor of Laguna Hills.

Environmentalist Pete DiSimone said that with the recent spurt of growth, the same mistakes are being played out all over again.

“There was a whole lack of planning and lack of learning from our mistakes” from the last housing boom in South County during the 1980s, said DiSimone, who runs the National Audubon Society’s Starr Ranch Sanctuary near Trabuco Canyon.

“Bad planning is one thing, but when you see the problems and don’t deal with them, that’s irresponsible,” he said. “We’re going to pay for it later.”

But even built-out northern Orange County is feeling growing pains.

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Although Anaheim last saw a housing boom in the late 1950s, schools Supt. Thompson said a shift in the real estate market is the main cause of the recent population shift.

“We’re seeing a large turnover. Many people are reaching retirement age and moving, and end up selling their homes to younger families with children,” Thompson said.

“We’re also seeing a lot of change in how families live. Often there are multiple families living in one home, or even in an apartment.”

Thompson said the already-burgeoning elementary school district is expecting one of the largest kindergarten enrollments in its history this fall.

“The high schools,” she said, “have no idea what’s coming.”

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Times staff writers Shelby Grad and David Haldane and correspondent Frank Messina contributed to this report.