Rapid Growth in Slot Machines Predicted Under Tribal Pact

SACRAMENTO — The gambling deal Gov. Gray Davis struck with California Indian tribes two months ago could more than quintuple the number of slot machines to 113,000 statewide, the legislative analyst’s office said in a letter Tuesday.

The Davis administration had insisted that its accord with the tribes in September would increase the number of machines only slightly. Davis repeatedly has maintained that he dislikes gambling and wants only a modest increase in legal gambling in California.

However, if the legislative analyst’s estimate is accurate, California would have the second largest number of slot machines in the nation after Nevada, which has about 200,000 machines. Slots are by far the most profitable casino games.

Davis spokesman Michael Bustamante disputed Legislative Analyst Elizabeth Hill’s estimate, saying: “I don’t know how she’s doing her math. It doesn’t sound like the numbers that were discussed.”

At the time Davis struck the deal with the tribes, his aides refused to give a firm estimate of the number of slot machines that would be permitted, though they conceded it could be about 43,000--twice the current number.

The legislative analyst’s estimate comes as Indian tribes and Davis prepare to campaign for ratification of their September compact to allow expanded legal gambling on reservations.

Before the tribes can expand their casinos, voters must approve a constitutional amendment in the form of Proposition 1-A on the March ballot. The proposition would grant tribes monopoly rights to operate slot machines and other Nevada-style games in California.

“It’s a dramatic expansion of gambling in California,” said former California Lt. Gov. Leo McCarthy, who is opposing Proposition 1-A. ‘The notion that this is a modest increase ... unaffecting most Californians is simply not the case.”

McCarthy, a San Francisco Democrat, was appointed by the U.S. Senate to a nine-member National Gambling Impact Commission that spent two years studying the impact of gambling nationwide.

McCarthy said Davis’ proposed expansion could double the number of “problem and pathological gamblers” in California to 1.4 million, and revenue to the tribes could rise to as much as $3 billion annually.

“These proposals--the constitutional amendment and the compact--move California toward adopting Nevada’s gambling culture,” McCarthy said.

McCarthy called on Davis to authorize a $500,000 study of gambling in California. “This [gambling proposal] is presented to the public in great haste,” said McCarthy, who is also a former state Assembly speaker. “It needs much more thoughtful analysis of the negative effects of gambling.”

Hill issued her estimate in response to questions from Assemblyman Bruce Thompson (R-Fallbrook), who opposes gambling. In her letter to Thompson, Hill said there are now about 21,000 slot machines in California and the compact permits that number to grow to 53,000.

Additionally, a separate section of the compact appears to authorize 60,000 more machines, Hill said.

“Thus, our best estimate is that the compact would allow about 113,000 machines statewide,” Hill said in her letter to Thompson. “We caution you, however, that different interpretations of the language in the compact could result in significantly different totals.”

Davis and the tribes entered into negotiations after the California Supreme Court struck down Proposition 5, the initiative approved by voters last November that would have given tribes the right to operate casinos on reservations as they saw fit. The Davis deal convinced tribes to halt plans for a new initiative that would have given them even greater rights to expand their casinos.