Military Quietly Poised for Iraq

WASHINGTON — As the debate intensifies on whether to invade Iraq, the Pentagon has quietly positioned its forces to be ready to move against Saddam Hussein in as little as two months.

Although President Bush continued his efforts Monday to rally support for a campaign against the Iraqi leader, a military strike is unlikely to happen that quickly, observers say. The administration, for instance, has yet to formally request basing and flyover rights from the dozens of countries on which a military operation would depend.

Unlike the last time it invaded Iraq, however, the military seems prepared to act. The U.S. has forces, weaponry and supplies to equip 30,000 troops already in the region, while 150,000 or more fully equipped troops who would be needed to mount a full-scale invasion could be routed to the region well before Christmas.

The ability to move quickly into Iraq is not the result of any recent overt moves of troops or equipment. Although the military has recently signed big contracts for commercial air and sea cargo space and has been replenishing its bomb supplies, it appears to have engaged in relatively little activity at its bases and camps in the countries surrounding Iraq that had not been in the works for several years.

The military has not only maintained its bases throughout the Persian Gulf since 1991 but has expanded them and built new ones. And it has made vast improvements in its ability to transport heavy materiel by sea and air.

The Bush administration’s diplomacy on an Iraq campaign is moving at an urgent pace. On Monday, Bush met in Detroit with Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien, who has been among the most upfront of the U.S. allies in opposing military action against Hussein.

Earlier in the day, Bush made a series of telephone calls seeking to round up support. White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said Bush spoke with President Ahmet Necdet Sezer of Turkey, which could be a key staging area for a military offensive against Iraq; Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who also is president of the European Union; and U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

Although there was little public indication of growing support, Fleischer said “budding” signs suggest that Bush’s effort is making headway.

Since its difficult preparation for the 1991 Persian Gulf War, when the U.S. needed six months to move its ground forces across the world and mass them on Iraq’s borders, the military has steadily increased the number of troops and amount of equipment it maintains at the ready in and around the Persian Gulf.

More Efficient Ships

To move still more equipment and supplies to the region, the military has bought and built more, faster and better ships and aircraft--enough to cut by more than two-thirds the time it should take to deploy a large military force to Iraq.

The ships can be unloaded much more rapidly than the cargo ships that were used to equip troops in the Gulf War, which relied on massive cranes to painstakingly lift tanks and other heavy gear out of their holds. Once in port, the new ships’ ramps come down, and workers drive vehicles off.

Other, less obvious advances cut deployment time. In 1991, troops unloading ships weren’t armed with manifests detailing what each container held, said retired Army Lt. Gen. William G. “Gus” Pagonis, who masterminded logistics during the Gulf War. That left troops digging through each container to find the equipment they most needed. Today, port personnel have computerized manifests sent to them before a ship arrives.

“A war in Iraq is not going to be quick and dirty, but the logistics of supporting one are a whole lot quicker now than they were,” Pagonis said. “We can do it, and we can do it faster and better than we did the first time. We really learned some lessons.”

Meanwhile, the sheer tonnage of U.S. tanks, fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers and other heavy equipment already standing at the ready in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and elsewhere in the Middle East is startling.

Before the Gulf War, almost none of it was based in the region.

“We have done a lot with pre- positioned stocks in the gulf, making sure they’re accessible and that they are in the right spot to support whatever the president wants to do,” Army Secretary Thomas E. White said last week.

Today, equipment for two Army heavy brigades is in Kuwait and Qatar, including 230 M-1A1 Abrams tanks, 120 M-2A2 Bradley fighting vehicles, 200 armored personnel carriers, 50 mortars and 40 155-millimeter howitzers. Warehouses in Kuwait and Qatar hold enough food and fuel to support two brigades of 5,000 troops each for a month.

A $200-million Army headquarters opened for business this year near the village of Arifjan, south of Kuwait City. It will be a permanent home for about 10,000 noncombat Army personnel who have been based at Kuwait’s Camp Doha since early this year.

In addition, there are indications that the Army has moved new combat troops into the region in recent months. One 1,500-member battalion has long been based at Camp Doha, but some military analysts who track such movements believe that the number may have grown to about 5,000 soldiers.

An additional 9,000 troops intended to pair up with the equipment already in place in Qatar and Kuwait could be airlifted in, probably from bases in Georgia and Texas, and be ready for action in 96 hours, military officials said.

Special Forces troops are positioned throughout the region, according to defense officials, but their numbers are small and their locations kept secret.

This extensive Middle East-based network is apart from the Afghanistan war theater. About 7,800 U.S. troops are on the ground in that country, and thousands more are at newly developed U.S. bases and airfields in surrounding countries such Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

By last winter, it was estimated that 60,000 U.S. military personnel were working in South and Central Asia. It is unclear what portion of those troops might be moved to an Iraq theater.

Around the British-controlled island of Diego Garcia, in the Indian Ocean, the improvements to the Army’s readiness are striking.

There, about eight ships designed to permit massive artillery pieces, Humvees and trucks to roll on and off like cars on a ferry are fully loaded with enough equipment to support one Army heavy brigade, plus weaponry, ammunition and supplies to equip multiple Army divisions for at least 30 days. Nearby, 15 ships are loaded with ammunition, fuel and minesweepers.

The Marines have equipment for one expeditionary brigade aboard fast ships afloat at Diego Garcia, plus enough equipment and supplies to maintain an air wing and ground support force for 30 days.

Before the Gulf War, only the Marines had ships at the ready with such fighting essentials. In fact, for more than 30 days after Army troops arrived in the Persian Gulf in 1991, they had no food of their own. The Marines fed them.

“That’s a huge difference between now and Desert Shield, because that means you can deploy these units and supply them immediately,” said Owen Cote, associate director of the security studies program at MIT. “In Desert Shield, the Army basically had to airlift their divisions and then go back [to the United States and Germany] and lift the food to support them. Now they have the lift to do it all at once.”

400 Aircraft in Region

The Air Force and the Navy likewise have stepped up their presence in the Persian Gulf in the last decade. Altogether, more than 400 U.S. aircraft are based in the region.

In addition, U.S. naval vessels have gradually moved into position. A Navy carrier battle group, consisting of an aircraft carrier, two cruisers, four destroyers and at least one tactical submarine, is afloat in the Arabian Sea. A Marine expeditionary unit, with its own helicopters and supplies to outfit 1,500 Marines for 30 days of ground warfare, also is deployed to the Arabian Sea.

The Navy also has two cruisers and four destroyers in the Persian Gulf.

In Bahrain, the 5th Fleet, with about 4,200 U.S. military personnel, is based in the capital, Manama. Since 1991, Bahrain has granted U.S. forces access to its facilities and the right to pre-position materiel for future crises.

The U.S. also is prepared to move forces from other parts of the world quickly in the event of an Iraq war. The Pentagon could move in another aircraft carrier battle group and another Marine expeditionary unit from the Pacific or the Mediterranean in one to two weeks. And at least two carriers and two Marine expeditionary units are ready off the East and West coasts of the U.S. for quick deployment.

The Army troops most likely to be deployed from the U.S. first in the event of an Iraq war, military officials said, are from the 4th Infantry Division, the 1st Cavalry Division, the 82nd Airborne Division and the 101st Air Assault Division. An Army division also could move from U.S. bases in Germany.

Patriot missile battalions based in the United States would be deployed to gulf countries that cooperate with U.S. efforts. The Patriots are the best defense the U.S. has against Scud missile attacks.

In the event of a U.S.-led strike on Iraq, Britain is likely to play a significant role, according to defense experts. The British would contribute special forces units, an aircraft carrier group, air power, armored units and infantry. The British force could number 25,000 troops, plus support personnel, if the U.S. opts for a full-fledged invasion.

Britain’s flagship aircraft carrier, the Ark Royal, set sail Monday for an exercise in the Mediterranean. Although the mission was planned long ago, experts say the carrier and its support group will now be in position to steam quickly toward the gulf.

The carrier could serve as a floating base for aircraft and troops if political dynamics dictate an operation launched from sea rather than land bases in gulf states. Some British experts predict that the U.S. will send four carrier groups to the area to impose a blockade on Iraq before an outright invasion, said Charles Heyman, editor of Jane’s World Armies.

Britain already has air units in the region flying missions over Iraq from bases in Turkey and Saudi Arabia. In an attack, Britain would probably add 25 planes to those aboard the aircraft carrier, Heyman said.

Like the Americans, British forces have vastly improved their ability to move troops and weapons around the world quickly and in bulk, military officials say.

*

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

*

Battle Stations

War with Iraq would utilize bases, ports and pre-positioned equipment. The Pentagon’s reluctance to identify some units and types of equipment because of security concerns makes locating them an inexact exercise, but here are some of the assets in place so far:

1. TURKEY: Air Force fighters and several thousand personnel at Incirlik Air Base; reported increases in U.S. ground and air forces to include Patriot antimissile batteries.

2. JORDAN: Use of several bases and air facilities, including two very close to the Iraqi border.

3. EGYPT: Cairo West Air Base supports refueling operations; other ports and airfields to serve as staging positions for any buildup of operations.

4. SAUDI ARABIA: Command center to direct all air operations in the region and coordinate intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance information; 70 to 80 fighter planes for patrolling southern “no-fly” zone in Iraq.

5. KUWAIT: Army command center; Patriot antimissile system; 70 to 80 fighter planes; equipment for one Army brigade; one training brigade; helicopter assault equipment; search and rescue personnel; Special Forces company.

6. BAHRAIN: Marine and Navy command centers; one carrier battle group with another on the way; Air Force fighters, bombers and support planes; Navy patrol aircraft and ship surface action group; 2,200 Marines in the region.

7. QATAR: Fighter-bombers, reconnaissance planes and tankers; hangars for more than 100 aircraft and a 15,000-foot runway; upgraded command and communications facilities; equipment for one Army brigade and support units.

8. OMAN: Air base at Masnaah under construction to include a 14,000-foot runway; possible B-1 bombers and air refueling planes; British special forces training; various other airlift and sea hubs.

9. DIEGO GARCIA: Equipment for an Army and Marine brigade plus a theater support package to equip multiple divisions; fuel; bombers; pre-positioned sea-lift ships for Army and Air Force.

*

Sources: Department of Defense; GlobalSecurity.org; Military Security Studies Program, MIT; Center for Defense Information

*

Graphics reporting by ESTHER SCHRADER and TOM REINKEN

*

Times staff writers Sebastian Rotella in London and James Gerstenzang in Detroit contributed to this report.