In lieu of a playoff, a big BCS payoff on shake-out Saturday

There isn’t a playoff in college football, but there is a Dec. 1, which features five punt, pass and pivotal games in five states that will help solve a complicated bowl puzzle.

Call it a play-in, or a play-out.

At stake are berths in the Bowl Championship Series title game in New Orleans on Jan. 7 and spots in dozens of other top bowls, including the Rose.

Game results from Morgantown to Honolulu, Los Angeles to San Antonio, Tempe to almost Timbuktu will carry multimillion-dollar ramifications.

It could be as easy as USC beating UCLA and clinching a Rose Bowl bid and, with victories, West Virginia and Missouri wrapping up title-game berths.

It could be as complicated as UCLA becoming the first five-time loser in Rose Bowl history and then waiting around to see whether Illinois is even Rose Bowl eligible.

“Those who want to criticize the BCS will have no trouble finding a reason to do it,” BCS Coordinator Mike Slive said this week.

And those who love it won’t want Saturday to end.

Here is your BCS game-day timetable, all times Pacific:

1:30 P.M.: UCLA (6-5) AT USC (9-2)

The stakes: USC makes it easy for the Rose Bowl welcoming committee if it wins on its home (at least for now) field.

A UCLA win, coupled with an Arizona State loss, sends the Bruins to Pasadena and may make the Rose Bowl, in a twist, wish it could get this year’s game moved to the Coliseum.

What could go right/wrong? Last year, UCLA stunned USC, 13-9, and denied the Trojans a trip to the national title game. That’s pretty much how you draw it up in the stick-it-to-your-rival manual.

USC should be highly motivated not to let that happen again. It has the better team and, unlike UCLA, not a single quarterback who started the season as a wide receiver.

4:45 P.M.: PITTSBURGH (4-7) AT WEST VIRGINIA (10-1)

The stakes: West Virginia has clinched the Big East title but a win over Pittsburgh in Morgantown sends the Mountaineers to the BCS title game. A Sept. 28 loss at South Florida seemed to doom West Virginia’s title aspirations, yet the Mountaineers have climbed back from No. 9 in the BCS standings.

West Virginia is a 28 1/2 -point favorite at home, but a rivalry game known as “The Backyard Brawl” should never be taken for granted.

West Virginia Coach Rich Rodriguez knows Pittsburgh can ruin everything.

“This is a game they could let it all loose,” he said.

5 P.M.: MISSOURI (11-1) VS. OKLAHOMA (11-1)

The stakes: A Missouri win in the Big 12 title game at San Antonio sends the Tigers to the BCS title game in New Orleans. An Oklahoma victory deposits the Sooners in the Fiesta Bowl and opens a back door for No. 3 Ohio State to seize a BCS title-game spot. It would be a remarkable comeback for the Buckeyes, who fell from No. 1 to No. 7 in the BCS standings after a Nov. 10 home loss to Illinois.

If West Virginia and Missouri both lose, Ohio State seems a lock for one title-game spot while the other would be highly contested.

Two-loss Georgia, which did not win its own division of the Southeastern Conference, could play in the title game. After Nebraska made it to the 2001 title game without winning the Big 12, BCS commissioners decided against a rule change that would require title-game participants to be conference champions. The next year, in fact, Oklahoma finished No. 1 in the BCS despite getting blown out of the Big 12 game by Kansas State.

If West Virginia and Missouri lose, and Louisiana State defeats Tennessee in the SEC title game, LSU would be outraged if Georgia wrangled a championship berth.

So might potential two-loss conference champions Virginia Tech, USC and Oklahoma.

5 P.M.: ARIZONA (5-6) AT ARIZONA STATE (9-2)

The stakes: The Rose Bowl plans to keep roses chilled in a Tempe hotel room just in case Arizona State wins the Pac-10 title.

If USC has already defeated UCLA to earn the Rose Bowl bid, this game loses luster. If UCLA pulls off the upset, though, Arizona State earns the Rose Bowl bid with a win over Arizona. If Arizona wins, UCLA wins the Pac-10. The Rose Bowl has stand-by roses, back in L.A., at the ready for the Bruins.

The Rose Bowl may not be able to finalize its game until Sunday’s BCS standings are released.

The best-case scenario is USC vs. Ohio State in a traditional pairing of powerhouse Pac-10 and Big Ten franchises.

If either Missouri or West Virginia falls, the best game the Rose Bowl could make is USC vs. Georgia, maybe the best BCS bowl game on the board. The Big Ten, though, is lobbying hard for three-loss Illinois, which is No. 15 in the BCS. The Illini, however, must finish in the top 14 to be eligible unless there are not enough qualified schools.

If Missouri and West Virginia lose, and the national title game is Ohio State vs. Georgia, then USC or Arizona State vs. Illinois would be the game the Rose Bowl hopes it could make.

8:30 P.M.: WASHINGTON (4-8) AT HAWAII (11-0)

What’s at stake: A BCS bowl berth for Hawaii. As winner of the Western Athletic Conference, one of five leagues without an automatic bid, Hawaii must finish in the top 12 of the BCS standings to earn a major bowl berth. With one game left, the Warriors are right on the BCS cut line -- No. 12 -- and asking East Coast poll voters to remain awake until 3 a.m. to make a final assessment.

A victory against Washington should assure Hawaii a top-12 finish and would probably send the Warriors to the Sugar Bowl to face the SEC champion -- either LSU or Tennessee.

Under BCS rules, Hawaii also would get a bid if it ends up in the top 16 and ranked ahead of a major conference champion, which would be the case if UCLA ends up winning the Pac-10.

If Hawaii loses, fast-finishing Brigham Young, ranked No. 19 in the BCS this week, could earn the bid if UCLA wins the Pac-10 and BYU finishes in the top 16.

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