A holiday travel forecast only Scrooge would love

“Are these the shadows of the things that will be, or are they shadows of things that may be?” Scrooge asks the Spirit of Christmas Yet to Come in “A Christmas Carol.”

That’s pretty much how I feel about dire predictions for holiday travel that come out around this time each year, and I’m just as confused as Scrooge about whether they are “shadows” of what could be or what will be.

Priceline, for example, calculated an average airfare for the holiday season by looking at a months’ worth of airline tickets the company booked for travel between Dec. 16 and Jan. 3. The result: $473, a 14% increase from last year. Spokesman Brian Ek said in a statement said the price spike likely was due to “fourth-quarter capacity cutbacks,” which, loosely translated, means fewer seats available.

But this doesn’t mean you’ll be paying an exorbitant airfare if you haven’t yet bought a ticket. For those still shopping, Priceline’s Best Days to Fly calendar singles out Dec. 12-15 and Dec. 19-21 as dates when travelers might see lower prices on airfares during the runup to Christmas.

Once you get an airline ticket, there’s more dismaying news, for Angelenos, at least. Orbitz predicts Los Angeles International Airport will be the busiest airport in the nation between Dec. 23 and 27. This is based on airfare bookings the company received during that travel period. Chicago O’Hare ranks No. 2, followed by Orlando, Denver and New York’s JFK Airport.

And unlike Scrooge, I don’t have the power to change any of this -- with or without the help of spirits.